Bitcoin Faces Decline and September Challenges as Analysts Weigh In on Crypto Market: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, SOL, and DOT Analysis
Summary:
Bitcoin struggles as it faces an 11% decline in August, close to last year's fall. September also appears challenging historically. Bloomberg's Mike McGlone warns of potential nosedive to $10,000. Analysts advise caution before making large bets. S&P 500 and U.S. dollar index show mixed signals. BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, SOL, and DOT analyses offered. No investment advice provided.
Bitcoin (BTC) has witnessed an approximately 11% decline in August, falling just short of the 13.88% drop in the same month in 2022, according to data from CoinGlass. The outlook for September is not promising either, as historical data reveals a consistent decrease in Bitcoin's value during this month since 2017. Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone even expressed a bearish view, warning that in the event of a "global economic reset," Bitcoin could plummet to as low as $10,000. While analysts have provided optimistic and pessimistic targets, it is advisable to wait for a clear breakout before making significant bets. The recent low volatility period indicates an imminent increase in volatility, but predicting the direction of the breakout is challenging. Now, let's assess the charts to identify potential breakout signs for Bitcoin and major altcoins.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) initially encountered resistance at the moving averages on August 24, but failed to maintain lower levels as buyers pushed the index back towards the moving averages. If buyers successfully overcome this hurdle, the index could experience a rally towards the resistance zone between 4,607 and 4,650, where a fierce battle between bulls and bears is expected. Conversely, if the price declines from the moving averages once again, it would suggest that bears are vigorously defending this level, potentially resulting in a slide towards the pivotal support at 4,325. A breakdown at this level would complete a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating a correction towards the pattern target of 4,043.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) witnessed a significant positive move above the downtrend line on August 22, signaling a potential end to the correction in the near term. Despite a brief attempt by bears to pull the price back below the level on August 23, the bulls managed to maintain their ground, flipping the downtrend line into support. Currently, buyers aim to push the price towards 106, with the rising 20-day exponential moving average and overbought territory on the relative strength index favoring buyers. A swift pullback below the downtrend line, however, could send the index towards the 50-day simple moving average at 102.
Bitcoin remains range-bound between $24,800 and $26,833, with both bulls and bears hesitant to take substantial positions. The downsloping moving averages and oversold RSI indicate bearish dominance. Nevertheless, sellers may encounter difficulty in resuming the downward movement as bulls are likely to fiercely defend the $24,800 support level. A rebound from this level would suggest a continuation of the consolidation phase. A rally above $26,833 would indicate the first sign of strength, potentially pushing the price towards the 50-day SMA and $30,000. Conversely, a break and close below the $24,800 support could lead to a downtrend towards $20,000.
Ether (ETH) has sustained selling pressure near the crucial support at $1,626, signaling bearish activity. The inability of the bulls to initiate a significant rebound increases the risk of a breakdown below $1,626, which could lead to a plunge towards $1,550. Nonetheless, this level is expected to attract robust buying from bulls. If prices turn upwards from here but later turn down again from $1,626, it would indicate a shift of this level into resistance, potentially starting a downtrend towards $1,368. To signal a comeback, bulls must surpass the 20-day EMA at $1,716.
Binance Coin (BNB) is facing selling pressure at the breakdown level of $220, as bears attempt to turn this level into resistance. Despite this pressure, the fact that buyers have not surrendered significant ground from $220 suggests that they are maintaining pressure. Bulls must overcome the 20-day EMA barrier at $223 to initiate a relief rally towards the resistance line, which, once reached, may face strong selling. On the downside, the initial support is at $213. A breakdown at this level may lead to a plunge towards psychological support at $200, followed by a potential decline towards $183.
XRP has failed to move above the overhead resistance at $0.56, indicating a lack of demand at higher levels. The weak bounce off $0.50 may prompt aggressive selling by bears. Breaching the $0.50 support may result in a drop towards the crucial support level at $0.41, where substantial buying activity from bulls is expected. A rebound from this level would suggest a potential consolidation period between $0.41 and $0.56. Conversely, breaking above $0.56 would signify the start of a sustained recovery, potentially pushing the price towards the 50-day SMA at $0.64.
Cardano (ADA) has been oscillating within a narrow range between $0.24 and $0.28, with bulls buying near the support level and bears selling at resistance. If buyers successfully push the price above the overhead resistance at $0.28, a rally towards the 50-day SMA at $0.29 could ensue. This level may act as an obstacle, but if overcome, the pair may surge to $0.34. Alternatively, bears are anticipated to defend the overhead resistance, aiming to drive the price towards the range support at $0.24. A breakdown at this level could result in a slump towards $0.22, followed by a potential decline to $0.20.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading between the strong support at $0.06 and the 20-day EMA at $0.07. The declining 20-day EMA and negative RSI indicate bearish supremacy. For bulls to initiate a recovery, they must promptly push the price above the 20-day EMA. Doing so could rally the DOGE/USDT pair to the 50-day SMA and subsequently to $0.08. Conversely, if sellers overpower buyers and push the price below $0.06, their position will strengthen further. Time is running out for bulls, and failing to reclaim the 20-day EMA could result in a drop towards lower support levels.
Solana (SOL) has been slowly declining, with bears capitalizing on minor relief rallies. The pair could plummet to the intraday low of $19.35 on August 22. A breakdown at this level could intensify selling pressure, pushing the pair towards $18 and eventually the major support level at $15.60. However, if the price reverses course and breaks above $22.30, it would indicate strong buying at lower levels. The pair may then rise to the 50-day SMA and the resistance level at $26.
Polkadot (DOT) bulls are attempting to breach the resistance at the 20-day EMA at $4.64, but they are expected to face strong resistance from bears. A failure to do so would indicate prevailing negative sentiment and selling during rallies, potentially leading to a retest of the crucial support at $4.22. A breakdown at this level may result in a further plunge towards $4 and eventually $3.88. On the other hand, a breakout above the 20-day EMA would suggest a stronger relief rally towards the breakdown level at $5, which is likely to attract selling pressure.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. readers should conduct their own research and analysis before making any investment decisions.
Published At
8/28/2023 5:53:32 PM
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