VanEck Predicts Bitcoin All-Time High, ETF Launch and US Recession for 2024
Summary:
Late 2024 might see Bitcoin skyrocket to new highs, on the heels of a long-anticipated US recession and post-presidential election regulatory shifts, predicts asset manager VanEck. The firm also forecasts a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) to launch in Q1 2024, expects the US recession to finally hit, and foresees more than $2.4B flowing into these ETFs. Despite doubting that Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in 2024, VanEck anticipates both cryptos will outperform major tech stocks. Furthermore, Ethereum's market dominance is expected to be challenged by platforms like Solana while Ethereum aims to solidify its spot with the EIP-4844 scaling update. The firm highlights that decentralized networks could disrupt the monopoly of tech giants over AI. Lastly, VanEck anticipates a shift in the leadership among centralized exchanges and foresees a surge in the market cap of stablecoins.
In late 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) is anticipated to soar to unprecedented levels, coinciding with a long-anticipated recession in the United States and regulatory changes following the next presidential election, according to asset management firm VanEck. On December 8, VanEck outlined 15 projections for the cryptocurrency landscape in 2024, covering areas such as the Bitcoin price, when a Bitcoin ETF could be launched, the impact of Bitcoin halving, and emerging dominant platforms in the cryptocurrency space.
VanEck, along with other major firms such as BlackRock and Fidelity, is competing for the authorization of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, as well as an Ethereum ETF. The firm firmly believes that the first Bitcoin ETFs will be given the green light in Q1 2024. Despite this optimistic projection, VanEck also anticipates a downturn in the U.S. economy. However, as the recession hits, it also expects Bitcoin ETFs to debut, and over $2.4 billion could pour into these ETFs, providing a boost to Bitcoin's price.
VanEck also predicted a mild market disturbance surrounding the Bitcoin halving, expected in either April or May. It anticipates this event to lead to a spike in Bitcoin's price post-halving and reaching a new peak in Q4 2024, potentially influenced by political developments and regulatory changes in the wake of a U.S. presidential election.
The company expressed skepticism that Ethereum (ETH) would outpace Bitcoin in 2024, although it still predicts ETH to outperform major tech stocks. VanEck expects Bitcoin to initiate a market rally, with value moving into smaller tokens following the halving. It believes that Ethereum will only begin to outperform Bitcoin after the halving and could potentially surpass it throughout the year, but a complete 'flippening' is not anticipated.
Despite this, Ethereum's dominance in the market could be threatened by other smart contract platforms, such as Solana, who offer less uncertainty concerning their scalability roadmap. With a market capitalization of $285 billion, Ethereum is the current leader for smart contracts. Solana, a high-throughput blockchain competitor, has a market cap of $30 billion. However, Ethereum's layer-2 networks are expected to become the primary destination for total value locked and trading volume, following the implementation of the EIP-4844 scaling update.
In a report released earlier this week, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), a prominent venture capital firm, also made several tech predictions, with a primary focus on artificial intelligence and decentralization. The firm believes that the crypto industry can disrupt the AI monopoly currently held by tech behemoths like OpenAI, Google, and Meta, ushering it into the broader Web3 community.
Currently, creating AI models requires substantial resources, predominantly accessible to tech giants. However, cryptocurrencies could allow for permissionless markets, where anyone can contribute to training extensive language models. This decentralization-driven shift is expected to become more prominent in 2024.
VanEck further speculated that the top spot currently held by Binance, as the leading centralized exchange by volumes, is likely to be claimed by competitors such as Coinbase, OKX, Bybit, and Bitget. This comes amidst regulatory scrutiny pressuring Binance globally, leading to the resignation of its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, following a $4 billion settlement with the U.S. Justice Department.
Furthermore, VanEck forecasts that the market capitalization of stablecoins will reach $200 billion and that Circle’s USDC will see a resurgence. It also predicts that decentralized exchanges will see a record high in spot trading volumes and KYC-compliant DeFi platforms will likely overtake non-KYC counterparts. Consequently, KYC-enabled applications, like those utilizing the Ethereum Attestation Service or Uniswap Hooks, will experience significant user growth and fee generation, potentially surpassing non-KYC applications.
Published At
12/8/2023 7:59:00 AM
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