U.S. Treasury Yields Surge, Cryptocurrency Trends, and Market Forecast
Summary:
The article discusses the recent surge in U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields and possible recession warnings. It also considers the potential need for government intervention to support the bond market, which could trigger a cryptocurrency bull market. The article goes on to provide a comprehensive analysis of recent trends and potential future movements for various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, BNB, Solana, Cardano, Dogecoin, TONcoin, Polkadot, and Polygon. It does not offer any specific investment advice or recommendations.
On October 3, U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields surpassed the 4.8% mark for the first time since 2007. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, highlighted in a recent post on X (previously known as Twitter) that the gap between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has shrunk from 109 points a few months back down to just 35 presently. A mild word of caution was issued by him stating that everyone should be mindful of a potential recession.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes shared a concern in an X thread by suggesting that money printing by the government might be inevitable to salvage the bond market since a condition where long-term interest rates escalate faster than short-term rates could bring down firms. Some market players feel this could lead to a cryptocurrency bull market.
A daily review of the cryptocurrency market performance is presented courtesy of Coin360. Institutional investors it seems are beginning to show more interest in cryptocurrencies. CoinShares’ recent Digital Asset Fund Inflows Weekly Report showed a six-week first-time inflow of $21 million into digital asset investment products. In this shaky macro environment, it's worth checking out some charts to get a sense of potential future moves.
Bitcoin's (BTC) price increased beyond $28,143 on October 2, however, a long wick on the candlestick indicates that bears are ready and selling at these higher levels. These sellers tried to gain an upper hand on October 3, but the bulls remained steadfast at $27,160.
Positive signs for the bulls include a climbing 20-day exponential moving average of $26,903 and a relative strength index (RSI) in positive territory. Buyers will likely attempt to brush past the resistance level at $28,143 again. Breaking this level would create a short-term double bottom pattern with a target of $31,486.
Fluctuating Ether (ETH) prices fell from the $1,746 resistance peak on October 2, demonstrating bears heavily protecting this level. Stable 20-day EMA ($1,640) and an RSI at the midpoint suggest a balanced supply-demand equation. If the current price picks up, expect bull traders to once more challenge the $1,746 hurdle. Success means the ETH/USDT pair will achieve a double bottom pattern and target $1,961. A continuing downward trend that dips below the moving averages may result in the pair remaining within the $1,531 to $1,746 range for an extended period.
BNB (BNB) hopped over the resistance at $220 on October 2, though the bulls could not preserve this breakout, as indicated by the long tail on the day's candlestick. Uncertainty looms as the bulls failed to keep the price above the 20-day EMA ($214)—a negative signal revealing traders in a hurry to exit. BNB/USDT pair could dip to the upswing line next. Should prices rebound here, bulls will again push for surpassing $220. A subsequent decline below the upswing line might push the pair down to the formidable support at $203.
Buyers managed to force XRP (XRP) over and beyond the symmetrical triangle pattern on Sep. 29, averting many bearish attempts to drag the price back into the triangle. Next, the bulls will seek to breach the overhead resistance at $0.56. Victory signifies the onset of a new uptrend where the XRP/USDT pair could then aim for the $0.66 pattern. A fall below the upswing line indicates bulls cashing out, and that could keep the couple in the $0.56 and $0.41 range for a few more days.
Contrary swing prices have portrayed Solana (SOL) in a sizable fluctuation, ranging between $14 and $27.12. Recent price activities suggest the formation of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. Even though patterns formed within a scale tend to be less reliable, they cannot be ignored. Prices breaking above the neckline implies the SOL/USDT pair could go for a $27.12 rally, then to the pattern target of $32.81. Close watch must be kept on the downside for the 20-day EMA ($20.95) as a slide below means the bulls have capitulated. Such a move could unfold a potential drop to $17.33.
Cardano (ADA) fell from the $0.27 on Oct. 2, hitting the 20-day EMA line ($0.25) on Oct. 4. A friendly reminder to keep this value in check in the upcoming days.
If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, this will signal a sentiment shift from rallying sales to dip buying. The bulls will therefore strive to push the price over $0.27 and ignite an uptrend to $0.29, then to $0.32.
In contrast, a lower shift from the 20-day EMA will suggest that the bulls have repelled the rally. This could lead ADA/USDT plummeting to the critical $0.24 support. Vigorous protection is to be expected from the bulls at this level.
Dogecoin (DOGE) managed to climb over the 50-day SMA ($0.06) on Oct. 2, but couldn't handle the high altitude, hinting at bears selling on every hurrah rally. The DOGE/USDT pair has now reached the mighty $0.06 support. Repeated tests of a support level in a short window can make it fragile. If the $0.06 level cracks, the pair might slip to the next major support at $0.055. On a positive note, a bullish divergence has been spotted in the RSI, implying a slight advantage for the buyers and an indication that bears could be losing their firm grip.
TNcoin (TON) dipped below the 20-day EMA ($2.09) on September 30 and failed to win back the level on October 1. Now, bears are trying to strengthen their stand by pushing the price to the 50-day SMA ($1.86). This rebound may face resistance at the 20-day EMA.
Upon a downward turn from this resistance level, we can assume that the sentiment has turned bearish and traders are selling on rallies, which could raise the odds of a drop below the 50-day SMA. In contrast, if the price moves up and crosses the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the market has dismissed the lower levels. The TON/USDT pair could then escalate to $2.32—another mountain for the bears to try and halt the progress.
Polkadot (DOT) sharply fell from the 50-day SMA ($4.24) on October 2 and dropped below the 20-day EMA ($4.10) on October 3. Bears attacked the crucial $3.91 support on October 4, but the long tail on the candlestick reveals a strong buy at lower levels. The RSI has shown a bullish divergence, indicating that the sellers may be losing their hold.
Bulls pushing the price above the 20-day EMA suggest that the DOT/USDT pair could extend their stay in the $4.33 to $3.91 range a bit longer. Bears need to submerge the price below $3.91 to trigger the next downtrend leg to $3.50.
Polygon (MATIC) bounced on October 4 after an intense tussle between bulls and bears near the moving averages, signalling that buyers are trying to take the reins. On that note, the bulls are set to capitalise and drive the price beyond the overhead resistance at $0.60. This could herald the start of a prolonged recovery in the MATIC/USDT pair—then progressing to $0.70.
Falling and breaking below the 20-day EMA would imply that the bears are operating at higher levels, moving the pair to re-test the crucial $0.49 support. Expect the bulls to mount a considerable buying defence at this level.
Investment advice or recommendations are not included in this article. All investment and trading moves carry risks, and prospective readers should carry out independent research before making a decision.
Published At
10/4/2023 5:43:30 PM
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