SEC May Approve First Bitcoin ETF by January 10: Analyst Predictions and Implications
Summary:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may endorse the first-ever listing of a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) shares by January 10th. Despite positive indicators, this approval is not guaranteed. If at least one Bitcoin ETF proposal gets approved, many asset management firms like BlackRock, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, and others could follow suit.
There's wide speculation that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may endorse the first-ever listing of a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) shares by January 10. The nature of this approval, should it occur, could take various forms. Even with positive indicators leaning toward endorsement, it's not a certainty that the SEC will sanction a Bitcoin ETF.
As of the current publication, several asset managers have advanced in the process by submitting final amendments (19b-4 forms) on January 5 and revised S-1 forms on January 8. The SEC, historically, has never ratified a cryptocurrency exchange-traded product on U.S. exchanges. However, 2021 saw the commission permitting ETFs with crypto futures exposure. While an October court ruling obligated the commission to reconsider Grayscale Investments' Bitcoin ETF proposal, it could still reject an investment instrument for varying reasons.
Analysts suggest that if the SEC approves at least one Bitcoin ETF proposal, others may follow. In such a case, various asset management firms including Valkyrie, WisdomTree, BlackRock, VanEck, Invesco and Galaxy, Grayscale, Fidelity, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton could be given the nod on January 10th. BlackRock, as part of its preparation, reportedly intends to procure an initial $10 million worth of BTC to fund its ETF.
Juan Aranovich from Ryze Labs states that if the Bitcoin ETF gains approval, this could result in significant growth in the related Bitcoin ecosystem. However, if the ETF doesn't receive approval, the related ecosystem projects could experience substantial dips.
If the SEC chooses to approve some applications while rejecting others, their reasoning must withstand scrutiny. It's implausible the commission could reject an application citing investor protection and market manipulation concerns, while approving another. The SEC needs to make final decisions on applications including the one submitted by ARK Invest and 21Shares, by January 10. However, decisions for other applications could be delayed until March or even later. It's uncertain whether the SEC will take an unexpected stance based on recent filings.
Published At
1/9/2024 11:47:20 PM
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