SEC's Extra Scrutiny, Not Rejection, Likely to Delay Bitcoin ETF Approval: Analysts
Summary:
Bloomberg ETF expert, Eric Balchunas, predicts a slim chance of Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval this month, attributing potential delay to the SEC's need for further scrutiny rather than outright rejection. This view is shared by Vetle Lunde, an analyst at K33 Research, who anticipates a meager 5% chance of the ETF being rejected. Balchunas further speculates that, if denied, fund issuers may follow crypto asset manager Grayscale's example and sue the SEC.
The likelihood of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) getting the green light this month seems slim, but rather than outright rejection, it seems more likely that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seeks extra time, posits Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas. He told Cointelegraph that while he and fellow ETF expert, James Seyffart, estimate a 90% probability of approval by January 10, they refrain from increasing it further, citing this reason. They indicate that if approval doesn't come within a fortnight, the delay will more likely arise from the need for further scrutiny rather than refusal.
Balchunas emphasized that the odds of 10% encapsulate both eventuality - delay or denial, precluding the chance of a complete denunciation, given the SEC's and Bitcoin ETF issuers' substantial time and effort invested into it. According to him, "straight-out denial at the eleventh hour would be a shocking turn of events as everyone has invested significant effort into this, even during holidays."
In a market report issued on January 2, Vetle Lunde, an analyst at K33 Research, echoed Balchunas’ perspectives. He predicts a meager 5% chance of the ETF getting rejected. Balchunas further predicted that if the ETF were outright denied, fund issuers may imitate Grayscale, the crypto asset manager, and take legal action against the SEC. He said that failure isn't an option considering the effort and resources invested.
Despite resolutions submitted to the SEC for feedback upon the filings, two recent petitions on January 2 urged the ETFs to be refused flatly. The latest letter pointed out that Bitcoin's decentralized nature and potential to bypass traditional financial systems may appeal to dictatorships seeking to evade sanctions and exert increased control over their populace.
Published At
1/3/2024 6:27:42 AM
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