Predicting Bitcoin's Future: Could BTC Reach $435K by 2028 Halving?
Summary:
Since the last Bitcoin halving in 2020, its value has increased by approximately 658%, leading to speculations that it could reach as high as $435,000 by the halving in 2028. However, halving rally returns have been declining, suggesting Bitcoin could hit $303,600 by 2028 instead. Recent Bitcoin price surge isn't linked to halving, but to investments in Bitcoin ETFs.
Since the most recent Bitcoin halving in 2020, the price of Bitcoin has seen an impressive jump of nearly 650%. Should this pattern persist, the value of Bitcoin could potentially surge to $435,000 before the next halving event in 2028. As per information gleaned from TradingView, Bitcoin's value has had a rise of about 658% post the 2020 halving and is at present being traded close to $66,000.
We're less than three weeks away from the 2024 Bitcoin halving event. If past chart patterns were to recur, a simulation of the current cycle would position Bitcoin's $66,000 value at approximately $434,280 per unit by the time we hit 2028's halving. However, the rate of returns for each Bitcoin halving rally has been on a downward slope over time. For the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin went from being virtually worthless to $12.5, marking an increase of over 12,400%. By the 2016 halving, Bitcoin's worth had climbed 5,200% to $650, and 1,200% to $8,500 by 2020.
In summary, Bitcoin's typical price rally has dipped by 45% for each cycle, to stand at the current 658%. If this downtrend continues into the next cycle, Bitcoin may experience a 360% rally, leading to a $303,600 price tag for Bitcoin by the 2028 halving.
The recent Bitcoin price surge isn't linked to the forthcoming halving. Instead, it's predominantly attributed to the investment into Bitcoin ETFs, as reported by Hao Yang, who heads financial products at Bybit. He stated that no solid evidence suggests a positive correlation between the BTC price and halving events.
A prediction by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that in the next two years, Bitcoin ETFs might overtake gold ETFs, indicating a high likelihood of Bitcoin prices hitting six figures. Bitcoin ETFs have been growing at a rapid pace compared to gold ETFs when they first appeared in 2004. Bitcoin is outpacing gold's price five times faster, says Sam Wouters, the head of contact at River.
Published At
4/4/2024 11:15:00 AM
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