Power Law Model Forecasts Bitcoin to Reach $10 Million by 2045, Asserts Ex-Physics Professor
Summary:
Former academic physicist Giovanni Santostasi has further detailed his "power law" model, suggesting it could predict Bitcoin's price reaching $10 million by 2045. Popularized through Reddit in 2018 and by financial YouTuber Andrei Jeikh this year, the model is gaining widespread interest. Bitcoin peak value could hit $210,000 by 2026, and later fall to $60,000, the model forecasts. The power law model, according to Santostasi, offers long-term Bitcoin price predictions, unlike short-term charts in mainstream media. Critics maintain that mathematical models can contain significant errors and fail to consider unexpected factors affecting the price.
Ex-academic physicist Giovanni Santostasi has illuminated further on his mathematical model known as the "power law," proposing it could foretell a Bitcoin (BTC) price of $10 million per coin by 2045. The power law is a mathematical concept where one number is directly proportional to another number's fixed power. It has been identified across a plethora of naturally-occurring incidents, like earthquake occurrences and stock market movements.
Santostasi initially brought up the power law model on reddit's r/Bitcoin in 2018. Its popularity soared again in January this year when financial YouTuber Andrei Jeikh referred to it in a video for his extensive 2.3 million-strong audience. Santostasi's model suggests that Bitcoin could hit a high of $210,000 in January 2026, potentially dropping as low as $60,000 thereafter.
On March 2, while conversing with mathematician and Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger, Santostasi suggested that a power law-based model offers a more comprehensible and predictable Bitcoin price model over extended periods. Conversely, most short-term Bitcoin price diagrams depicted in mainstream media portray a convoluted and unreliable Bitcoin price trajectory.
Santostasi clarified that unlike the discredited stock-to-flow model, the power law follows a logarithmic, not an exponential, trend. This implies that Bitcoin's value doesn't need to continually rise, and large price swings, like those seen between 2020 and 2023, can still fit within the model's purview.
In a subsequent post on March 3, Krueger detailed further modeling of the power law applied to Bitcoin, predicting Bitcoin could reach $100,000 within the next two years. According to Krueger, if Bitcoin follows the power law model, its market cap could surpass gold by 2033, making Bitcoin worth $1 million per coin.
Despite Santostasi's and Krueger’s bullish predictions, sceptics argue that any mathematical model can be subjected to significant inaccuracies and may not account for unexpected factors impacting the price.
Published At
3/4/2024 8:39:29 AM
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