NCSC Predicts Rise in AI-driven Cyber Threats in the Next Two Years; Calls for Further AI Studies
Summary:
The UK's National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) reports a predicted rise in cyber threats, notably ransomware attacks, linked to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) in the next two years. The report suggests AI can also enhance cybersecurity, but requires further study to understand its impact. It indicates AI's influence will depend on the resources of state actors, with those having advanced AI at an advantage. The report also highlights the challenges AI poses to cybersecurity, including the genuine verification of emails and password resets.
The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) of the UK has issued a report warning that, within the next two years, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) will likely lead to an alarming surge in cyber threats, specifically ransomware attacks. The NCSC report suggests that the advancement of AI could mitigate these threats by bolstering cybersecurity measures, including enhancing detection capabilities and refining protective designs. Nevertheless, it urges a closer examination to understand the impact of AI development on cybersecurity.
Ransomware attacks involve malevolent software designed to encrypt files or an entire system, compelling the victim to pay a ransom, usually in cryptocurrency, for a decryption key to recover their data. The report predicts that the impact of AI on cyber threats will differ based on the resources and capabilities of state actors, with those having access to sophisticated AI-powered cyber operations standing at an advantage.
The report further suggests that AI will primarily boost the capabilities of cyber threat actors in the area of social engineering. It anticipates that generative AI (GenAI) will perfect interactive experiences, such as decoy documents, eliminating grammatical and translation errors common in phishing. NCSC expects this trend to expand over the coming years.
Supporting this forecast, James Babbage, the Director General for Threats at the National Crime Agency, remarked on how AI services potentially lower entry barriers, thereby increasing the number of cyber criminals and enhancing the effectiveness, speed, and scale of existing attack methods.
The NCSC report underscores the challenges posed by AI models, including large language models (LLMs) and GenAI, in maintaining cyber resilience. These models complicate the verification of the authenticity of emails and password reset requests.
Further, the report highlights that the expertise, resources, and access to quality data required to utilise advanced AI in cyber operations are primarily held by competent state actors, who are best positioned to exploit the potential of AI.
Despite the emphasis on skills, tools, and capital investment for deploying advanced AI in cyber operations, the NCSC report suggests that these factors will reduce in significance as AI models become more common, thereby making AI-empowered cyber tools more widely available.
To counter this elevated threat, the UK government allocated £2.6 billion in 2022 under its Cyber Security Strategy. The aim is to increase the country's resilience to such attacks.
NCSC CEO, Lindy Cameron, stressed the twin objectives of harnessing AI’s untapped potential and managing its associated risks. She voiced her review on the vital need for the government to manage the challenges of AI, including its implications on cyber threats.
Published At
1/24/2024 11:48:35 AM
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