Market Analysis: Bitcoin Rally, U.S. Stocks and Altcoins' Potential Moves Amid Economic Events
Summary:
The article discusses how the temporary prevention of a U.S. government shutdown may have spurred the Bitcoin rally in early October. It explores potential market movements, examining Bitcoin, the S&P 500 Index, U.S. dollar index, and various altcoins such as Ether, BNB, XRP, Solana, Cardano, Dogecoin, and Toncoin. Each analysis considers the possibility of price changes and resistance levels, while noting that historical performances do not guarantee future trends. The article emphasizes conducting personal research and understanding market risks before making investment decisions.
Legislators in the U.S. Senate and House agreed on a temporary prevention of government shutdown on September 30, buying 45 days of operation. This may have significantly influenced the quick rise of Bitcoin (BTC) on October 1. Bitcoin's traditionally robust showings in October could also have contributed to the uptrend. On another hand, October is favorable for U.S. stock markets. Historical data from Stock Trader’s Almanac reveals an average rise of 0.9% in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) between 1950 and 2021 during this month. However, this doesn't mean investors should let their guard down, as Black Monday in October 1987 witnessed one of the market's worst crashes.
Although a brief uptick in the cryptocurrency markets appears probable, a surge is unlikely. The escalating U.S. dollar (DXY) might introduce profit-taking actions. The question arises, which overhead resistance levels in Bitcoin and altcoins might lure sellers?
After falling below the crucial 4,325 support point on September 22, the S&P 500 Index depicted a bearish trend. The index faced a battle at the setup's neckline, indicating a retest of the breakdown. If the price falls and breaks the 4,238 point, it hints at bear dominance and the potential for accelerated selling, which could lead to a dive to the 4,043 target. Recovery attempts will encounter selling pressure at 4,325 and the 20-day exponential moving average ($4,370). A break in this resistance signifies strength and could result in a rise to the downtrend line.
The U.S. dollar index rose past the 106 resistance on September 26, hinting at an upcoming uptrend. If it manages to hold above 106, it could rally to 108. Bears will attempt to pull the price below 106 and then the 20-day EMA. If successful, it will lead to a downturn towards the 50-day simple moving average ($103).
As for Bitcoin, it surged past the initial resistance of $27,500 on October 1 and continued the rally beyond $28,143 on October 2. A battle at $31,000 is anticipated due to expected resistance from bears. If Bitcoin falls sharply from this point, it means Bitcoin remains in the wide range between $31,000 and $24,800. Sellers aiming to seize control will need to tug the price beneath the 20-day EMA ($26,862).
The surge of Ether (ETH) on October 1 blew past the overhead $1,746 resistance after piercing the 50-day SMA ($1,652). The ETH pair may see its range extended if sellers manage to pull it under the moving averages.
BNB (BNB) fell from the 50-day SMA ($216) end of September but discovered support from the 20-day EMA ($214). A break above $220 will suggest an upswing to the trend.
XRP (XRP) broke the symmetric triangle pattern on September 29, signalling a potential rally towards $0.64. Any decline from $0.56 could confine XRP within a $0.41 to $0.56 range.
Solana (SOL) broke the formidable $22.30 resistance on October 1, signifying bullish comeback. Resistance may be encountered at $25.50 and $27.12.
Cardano (ADA) invalidated a developing bearish pattern by soaring past the downtrend line and 50-day SMA ($0.25). Higher levels may, however, face a tough market fight.
Dogecoin (DOGE) crossed the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on September 29 and approached the 50-day SMA ($0.06) on October 1, suggesting the bulls' preparation of a rally.
Toncoin’s (TON) rally ended at $2.31 on September 28 after bears fought back. TON faces a potential drop to the 50-day SMA ($1.84), if the price lingers below $2.07. A retest of the overhead resistance at $2.59 may see compel selling by bears.
Please note these considerations do not constitute financial advice. Market investments come with risks. Comprehensive research is optimal before initiating trading decisions.
Published At
10/2/2023 6:05:00 PM
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