Greeks.live Dampens Expectations for Bitcoin Price Surge Amid Rumors of Spot ETF Approval
Summary:
Crypto options trading platform Greeks.live tempers expectations of a significant Bitcoin price rise following rumors of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval by the U.S. regulator. Despite speculation, data shows little volatility in term implied volatilities and prices. They believe the market has already factored in potential approval, resulting in a limited impact on prices and volatility. This comes as asset managers such as BlackRock, Valkyrie, and Van Eck submit amended S-1 forms to the SEC for consideration of their ETFs.
Crypto options trading platform Greeks.live has tempered expectations of a significant upward push in pricing even as the U.S. regulator greenlights a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), drawing its conclusion from data on their site. In a tweet by Greeks.Live, they noted that the current market outlook on their platform doesn't predict high volatility or price shifts as a reaction to the potential SEC approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, contradicting widespread opinions. The market’s forecast of future price swings in options contracts is measured by Term IV. According to a report from Reuters, there's a possibility that the U.S. SEC might reach out to the Bitcoin ETF applicants at the beginning of next week. This step could mark a vital turning point in the crypto sector, enabling Bitcoin-backed ETF trading on regulated platforms. Nonetheless, the сomparatively muted market behavior highlighted in the tweet raises eyebrows.
The market buzz suggests that the SEC might clear the Bitcoin Spot ETF application as early as the coming Tuesday, yet the price and major term IVs showed little volatility. The options data indicated a decline in the implied volatility of Jan12 options closely linked to the ETF, instead of an expected rise. Additionally, the trade volume for these options was disproportionately low, only constituting 2% of the day's entire trade movement.
Greeks.live drew upon this data to suggest that the potential approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF might have been integrated into the market's considerations. To put it simply, market players possibly accommodated the expected approval and modified their stances accordingly, resulting in a lessened impact on volatility and prices.
Asset management institutions BlackRock, Valkyrie, and Van Eck filed revised S-1 documents to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on December 29, the final deadline for January 2024 consideration. Subsequent S-1 submissions came from Invesco Galaxy, Bitwise, WisdomTree, and Fidelity. In its renewed application, BlackRock named Jane Street and JPMorgan Securities as the “sanctioned participants” of its proposed Bitcoin spot ETF application and avowed its use of a cash-only model. It holds the record for being the first to complete a trade on JPMorgan’s Tokenized Collateral Network service on October 11.
Published At
12/31/2023 2:54:51 PM
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