Bitcoin Struggles With Resistance: Recovery Below $60,000 Amid Key Trendlines
Summary:
Bitcoin is grappling with significant resistance that keeps its price rebound below $60,000. Despite a 6.2% recovery from the week's lowest prices, the BTC/USD pair hasn't managed to surpass key trendlines. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, anticipates trading will remain below $70,000 until August. Key resistance levels on the radar include Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average at $59,930 and the short-term holder realized price. BTC needs to reclaim these levels to pave the way for potential recovery.
Bitcoin (BTC) is grappling with substantial resistance that is keeping its rebound price below $60,000. Despite making a 6.2% recovery from the week's lowest prices, BTC/USD hasn't succeeded in surpassing certain significant trendlines, according to data sourced from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. The moving average suggests a concerning ordeal for the BTC price.
In April and May, Bitcoin suffered a 23% drawdown from record highs. At this point, the prospect of resuming BTC price discovery is slim. As relayed by Cointelegraph, Arthur Hayes, the previous BitMEX CEO hailing from the cryptocurrency exchange, anticipates confined trading below $70,000 for BTC/USD until August. However, a breakthrough beyond $60,000 has to happen first, but currently, the trendlines protecting this figure are overpowering bullish inputs.
Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average (MA), which stands at $59,930 as of May 3, is being watched closely. This trendline has been a consistent market support since October 2023 and formed a base during the initial half of the 2023 Bitcoin bull market. Now, full daily candle prices below this line are being observed.
Regarding this occurrence, trading source Material Indicators concurred that bulls are encountering formidable technical resistance at the 100-Day MA. A chart accompanying the statement showed one of Material Indicators' unique trading tools lighting up on daily intervals. In a post on X, Keith Alan, co-founder, pointed out that "reclaiming the 100-Day Moving Average would be a significant victory for Bitcoin bulls, possibly leading to a short squeeze. However, a rejection could cause a crisis."
Further potential BTC price obstacle to overcome for recovery is the well-established bull market support line — the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP). This concept refers to the cumulative cost basis of Bitcoin holders of a more speculative nature— wallets holding BTC for 155 days or less. The price has returned to STH-RP multiple times in recent weeks, providing reliable support, as it has done throughout much of the bull market starting early 2023. The STH-RP was at $59,684 on May 1, information according to the on-chain data resource Look Into Bitcoin.
Another important trendline worth noting is formulated in close vicinity to $60,000. Caleb Franzen, CEO of Cubic Analysts, touches on STH-RP in his collection of resistance levels to surpass his latest X commentary. He marks his "risk-on" line in the sand as a daily closure above $61k and acknowledges "lots of work to do."
This write-up doesn't include any investment advice or proposals. Every investment and trading action carries risk, and readers should carry out their own investigations before making decisions.
Published At
5/3/2024 10:45:00 AM
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