Bitcoin Stabilises Pre-Halving; Mixed Predictions Shape Market's Future
Summary:
Bitcoin stabilises around $69,400, with a halving event less than 10 days away, leading to speculation around future price movements. Arthur Hayes of BitMEX discusses potential risks in the latter half of April due to U.S. tax payments and Federal Reserve strategies. A Deutsche Bank survey reveals polarised opinions about Bitcoin's future, with significant portions predicting a major drop or hopeful rise. Analyst Rekt Capital foresees Bitcoin possibly dropping to $40,000 following the halving, considering past price trends.
With Bitcoin (BTC) holding steady at around $69,400 since April 10, many are speculating about the stability of its highest ever price point, especially with the Bitcoin halving event less than ten days away. This marks the third unsuccessful effort by Bitcoin to lock in under its peak, indicating traders' unease at such unprecedented figures, often leading to profit-making sell-offs that halt further progression.
Bitcoin's continuous reluctance to exceed its peak may expose it to significant downturns in the coming weeks, according to Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder. He expects the halving of Bitcoin this April, combined with actions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury, to catalyse a major sell-off of crypto assets. Hayes emphasized that the latter part of April could be a tricky time for unstable assets coinciding with a liquidity slump due to U.S. tax payments, the Fed's initiation of quantitative tightening, and the imminent use of the Treasury's General Account (TGA).
A consumer survey by Deutsche Bank paints a mixed picture about Bitcoin’s future. About one-third of the respondents predict its value will hit below $20,000 by the end of 2024, a staggering drop from its current price and closely resembling the depths of the 2022 bear market. Only a small proportion (10%) of the 3,600 surveyed predict it could exceed $75,000 by year-end. Bitcoin does, however, have a substantial chunk of hopefuls (40%), expecting a prosperous long-term future, but there is nearly an equal number foreseeing its eventual demise.
Rekt Capital, a crypto market analyst, anticipates Bitcoin falling to around $40,000 post-halving, pointing to its price behavior around the previous three halvings. The shaded area of the pertinent chart denotes the zone where Bitcoin has historically experienced a roughly 20-40% pullback before its halving events. Now, just under ten days from the 2024 halving, Bitcoin could potentially enter a re-accumulation phase, consolidating within the $60,000-$70,000 range before breaking out towards a fresh high.
However, if Bitcoin slides under $60,000, the analyst predicts a tumble towards its rising trendline support, situated at around the $40,000 level. This report does not offer investment advice or suggestions. Every investment or trade move carries risks, and readers should undertake their own scrutiny before making any decisions.
Published At
4/10/2024 8:54:17 AM
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