Bitcoin Retests $26,000 as September Ends; Mixed Projections Emerge for Q4
Summary:
Bitcoin begins the last week of September with a retest of $26,000 amid a lackluster month for its price action. The upcoming speech by the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, is predicted to be a significant event. As new U.S. data will be released, Bitcoin readies to confront more trials before the end of the month. However, Bitcoin remains profitable, showing an upward trend of 0.8% for the month, which could make 2023 its best performing September in seven years. As potential fluctuations loom, multiple analyses present a mix of cautious and optimistic predictions for Bitcoin's trajectory.
As September edges to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) tests the $26,000 mark, sustaining firm within a recurrent range. The dull weekly closing signals a stable end to a month known for its typically unexciting BTC price movements. After a turbulent week filled with major global economic events, Bitcoin prepares to face more trials before bidding farewell to September. U.S. GDP data for Q2 will be released on September 28, followed by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) information. The main event, however, is expected to be a speech by Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, a week after the decision to maintain U.S. interest rates at their current high levels. Persistent discourse about inflation looms over the fourth quarter, while Bitcoin continues to hover in an uncertain space given the absence of any distinguished upward or downward patterns. Will this week bring about any changes? Time ticks towards the close of the month.
While its weekend performance remained constant, Bitcoin's price began to slide after the weekly close on September 24. BTC/USD plummeted to $26,000, as per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, still holding as support at the time of reporting before Wall Street kickstarts the week. Observers notice liquidations occurring for both long and short BTC positions.
Opinions remain divided on Bitcoin's trajectory, with some analysts expressing caution over future price movements. Some suggest that Bitcoin may replicate previous trends and 2023 may turn out to be a mirror image of 2019. If this prediction holds true, the bearish trend could push the value down within this macro range, with a potential downside target of $20,000.
The co-founder of monitoring resource Material Indicators noted a “death cross” pattern appearing on weekly charts. This occurs when the 21-week simple moving average (SMA) falls below its rising 200-week equivalent, indicating the frailty of recent price action. To invalidate this, BTC/USD needs to reclaim its position at $26,500.
On the brighter side, Credible Crypto believes that market rebalancing could potentially push Bitcoin back to the $27,000 level.
Despite dips in value during late night trading, Bitcoin remains profitable for the month of September as a whole, a rare occurrence when looking at historical data. The recent data from CoinGlass shows BTC/USD up by 0.8% for the month.
Despite the moderate volatility seen with the BTC/USD pair, September typically precedes greater increases in value in October, also known as "Uptober." If this trend continues, 2023 could be Bitcoin's best performing September in seven years.
As the beginning of the new month approaches, the CEO of trading firm Eight, Michaël van de Poppe, predicts that this could be the catalyst required for the total crypto market cap to surpass the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). Currently, Bitcoin’s 200-week EMA serves as support, lying at $25,700.
On the macroeconomic front, last week's events may be followed up by increased volatility across Bitcoin and crypto markets. Revised U.S. GDP for Q2 and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Powell are to come prior to the release of PCE data. Market analysts will be parsing the wording closely for signs of future economic policy direction.
As October approaches, the likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown looms over budget disputes. Lawmakers have until October 2 to prevent this scenario.
While Bitcoin available to purchase on exchanges is near its lowest level since 2018, Willy Woo of the Woobull analytics platform argues this does not reflect scarcity or illiquidity in BTC supply.
Despite short-term fluctuations, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s overall health. One analyst, known as Moustache, speculates that this moment could be the last opportunity to buy the BTC dip for 2023. A comparative chart points out the striking similarities in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) from 2020 to now.
Please note, this article does not constitute investment advice. Every trading or investment decision involves risk, and readers should undertake their own research before making a decision.
Published At
9/25/2023 8:21:57 AM
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