Bitcoin Predicted to Surge 25% Despite Federal Reserve's 'Hawkish Tone', According to Analyst
Summary:
An anonymous technical analyst, CryptoCon, maintains his prediction for Bitcoin to rise nearly 25% above its current peak, despite the Federal Reserve's 'hawkish tone'. The projection is based on the 'Magic Bands' model, which uses past market trends to forecast Bitcoin's trajectory. According to the model, Bitcoin should break past its current price consolidation stage and reach level 3, set at $91,539, before hitting the cycle’s peak of $123,832. Mixed reactions to the Federal Reserve’s position from different market watchers were also presented in the article.
A technical analyst has affirmed their projection for Bitcoin (BTC) to rise almost 25% above its current record value of $73,679, following a "hawkish tone" from the Federal Reserve. The analyst, who goes by the pseudonym CryptoCon, posted their prediction on June 12 X, shortly after the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes disclosed plans to keep the interest rate as is and reduce the number of expected rate cuts this year.
CryptoCon bases his BTC prediction on the "Magic Bands" model, a tool that analyzes previous peak and trough levels to forecast upcoming values. According to this model, Bitcoin will soar past its existing peak, progressing onto its next phase inspired by past cycle movements.
At present, Bitcoin appears to be held within level 2.5 according to the model. But once it pushes past this consolidation phase, it's projected to advance to level 3, pegged at $91,539, followed by the highest "Cycle Top Target" set at $123,832.
If Bitcoin climbs to $91,539, it would mark a substantial 34% growth from its current value of $68,315, based on data provided by CoinMarketCap. CryptoCon noted that Bitcoin's journey to the third level of the Magic Bands is forthcoming, despite reservations spurred by the Federal Reserve's "hawkish tone," a phrase used when the authority takes stringent measures to curb inflation, including reducing interest rate cuts.
This tone has left other traders unsettled; Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Consultancy, posted the Federal Reserve’s actions dictate Bitcoin's market trajectory. He also pointed out that the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) data appeared optimistic.
Echoing this sentiment, independent analyst Ted Talks Macro commented that the Federal Reserve was more hawkish than anticipated. On the other hand, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, thinks that the Federal Reserve's expectations might prove too ambitious. He suggested that they may need to reassess their projections later in the year, as seen with the peak inflation figures already posted.
Thielen indicated that despite the Federal Reserve planning only a single cut, the market is still banking on two rate cuts, a significant drop from the six expected earlier in the year. The announcement by the Federal Reserve led to Bitcoin's value increasing $1,500 in mere seconds, reaching $69,636. Thielen also remarked that the 3.3% U.S. CPI aligns with their expectations. He added, too, a lower CPI tends to be favorable for Bitcoin, while a higher CPI often results in a bear market, as witnessed in the sell-offs earlier this year.
Published At
6/13/2024 6:14:33 AM
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