Bitcoin May Face Pre-Halving Correction; Could Surge to $150K Post-Halving: Analysts
Summary:
Despite Bitcoin reaching a record high of approximately $73,700, historical patterns indicate a possible pre-halving correction. Some analysts expect a substantial drop in Bitcoin's price before the halving in April, similar to previous cycles. However, Bitcoin's price could surge to $150,000 following the halving, according to wealth management firm Bernstein. Other factors, like the growing demand for Bitcoin ETFs, could also influence Bitcoin's price trajectory.
Despite Bitcoin's recent surge to a record high of approximately $73,700 on March 13, historical chart patterns suggest a pre-halving correction might be on the horizon. Signals of overextension indicate Bitcoin's price could take a substantial plunge before the April halving. This echoes a 20% correction prior to the 2020 halving and a 38% decline ahead of the 2016 halving, warns well-regarded analyst Rekt Capital. The analyst foresees a potential drawback that could stretch over 77 days, yet the setback may be less severe than previous cycles. He points out, "So far this year, Bitcoin has seen a -18% setback in January and a -14% one in early March. Hence, if a pre-halving drawback arises, it's likely to be minor rather than major."
However, what if past patterns don't hold true this time around? For example, this current cycle is unique in that Bitcoin's price set a record high for the first time prior to a halving event. Furthermore, Bitcoin still has some catching up to do with its past halving cycle growth trajectory according to data shared by Ecoinometrics on March 12.
"If Bitcoin were to follow a growth path similar to its past two cycles, we'd expect it to be valued anywhere from $100,000 to $300,000 per coin," the report suggests.
Therefore, the current price movement has room for potential growth, particularly considering the previous high price point can act as a springboard for added growth before the halving.
Following the halving, wealth management firm Bernstein projects a Bitcoin surge to around $150,000 by mid-2025, according to a note to clients on Monday. The heightened demand for Bitcoin ETFs has boosted Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra's confidence in their price prediction.
"Back in 2024, we forecasted $10Bn inflows and an additional $60Bn for 2025. Since the ETF launch on Jan 10, Bitcoin ETF inflows have already exceeded $9.5Bn in just 40 trading days.
By this pace, Bitcoin ETFs are set to surpass our 2025 inflow estimates in just 166 trading days remaining in 2024," the analysts noted.
Bernstein further recommends clients to invest in Bitcoin miners as recent underperformance "is likely the last opportunity before the halving."
Yet, Bernstein's price prediction looks modest compared to Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, which has recently advanced its long-term Bitcoin price forecast to over $1 million. Please note, this article does not provide investment advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and it's crucial for readers to undertake their own research when deciding.
Published At
3/13/2024 12:00:13 PM
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