Bitcoin Faces Potential 35% Price Dip After 2024 Bull Run; Analysts Predict Diverse Scenarios
Summary:
Bitcoin experienced a major correction phase in 2024 after a robust rally, with the BTC/USD pair falling about 13.5% from its all-time high of approximately $74,000. The decrease mirrors past bull market adjusts, suggesting a possible upward trend after consolidation. Bitcoin's price may even target a resistance of around $84,000 in April or May. However, a possible 35% dip by June may place the digital asset closer to $40,000. According to Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data, the market might witness a price crash as a surge in profit-taking occur. Market analysts outline various predictions, with one anticipating a fall to the $40,000-42,000 range before Bitcoin's April halving, with another predicting stability around $57,500 in the coming term.
In 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a significant correction after a robust price rally. The BTC/USD exchange rate has experienced a nearly 13.5% drop from its highest point ever, which is also its year-to-date high, resting around $74,000. The present decrease in Bitcoin's price can be viewed as a typical adjustment seen in bull markets, implying a potential upward trend may follow after consolidation. Historically, Bitcoin has seen price dips ranging from 20-40% during bull market corrections.
The current surge in Bitcoin's price has pushed the market to an overbought state. By March 22, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was about 77. A typical indication of an overbought market is an RSI exceeding 70, implying that Bitcoin traders might decide to sell their holdings, leading to a price correction. When weekly RSI levels have crossed 70 in the past, significant price corrections towards the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA) usually follow.
Bitcoin seems ready for a rising trend in 2024, possibly reaching an ascending trendline resistance of around $84,000 in the early parts of April or May. But after this potential pinnacle, it might retract to its 50-week EMA close to $40,000, resembling a 2020-like correction after the rise. This means Bitcoin could face a 35% fall by June from the current levels of approximately $64,350.
According to Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data, a price crash could be on the horizon. This data shows the distinction between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap. An NUPL value above zero suggests investors are gaining profits, and an increasing trend indicates more profit-taking investors. Early this month, Bitcoin's NUPL hit 0.64, a figure that has traditionally indicated an uptick in profit-taking, resulting in notable Bitcoin price plunges.
Analyst Rekt Capital indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a risky area after its latest price decrease. This area aligns with where Bitcoin has generally experienced drops before halving events. He predicts Bitcoin to dip to the $40,000-42,000 range before its April halving. Meanwhile, trader Aksel Kibar suggests a more positive outlook, forecasting Bitcoin's price to stabilize around $57,500. This target aligns with the upper trendline of Bitcoin's previous rising channel trend.
Please note, all trading and investment decisions carry risks, and one should conduct detailed research before making a decision. This article is not providing financial or trading advice.
Published At
3/22/2024 5:14:43 PM
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