Bitcoin Expected to End 2023 At Starting Point, Says Glassnode Amid 30% October Rise
Summary:
Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to end 2023 in the same place it began, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. The company remarks this after nearly a 30% rise in BTC's value in October. A weekly newsletter by Glassnode suggests this past week could mark the beginning of an upward trend in BTC's price. As Bitcoin managed to cross key resistance levels at $35,200, different investor groups reaped considerable returns. The firm observes the current bullish market pattern as essential groundwork for a resumption of the 2023 uptrend.
As per the on-chain analytics company Glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to end 2023 at a similar point to where it started, as it sees nearly a 30% increase in October this year. In its weekly newsletter titled "The Week On-Chain", published on October 24, Glassnode's researchers suggest the past week could signify the start of a rising trend in BTC's price.
Over the past week, Bitcoin managed to overcome key resistance levels, reaching $35,200. Among the resistance indicators it successfully surpassed were various significant trendlines that had previously served as support, such as different moving averages (MA). Notable among these, the 200-week simple MA was located at $28,400, traditionally regarded as the "bear market" support line. "Currently, price averages located around $28,000 serve as long-term market resistance. However, after a steady ascent over the past month, the market bulls this week emerged strong enough to bypass the 111-day, 200-day, and 200-week averages," according to Glassnode.
As a result, the return on investment for different investor groups significantly improved. The average cost price, especially for speculators and newcomers, is also closer to $28,000. As Glassnode pointed out, "The cost baseline for Short-Term Holders (STH) now lies below $28,000, which means, on average, recent investors are making a profit of over 20%."
Glassnode's researchers provided a chart of the STH market value compared to its realized value (STH-MVRV), useful in assessing the profitability of STH-held coins. As per their findings, there was no significant sell-off pattern even before the October surge. The researchers explained, "In the years 2021-22, we observed STH-MVRV ratios dipping to -20% or more on several occasions. However, this recent August's market downturn only led to a relatively minor decrease of -10% in the MVRV ratio. This suggests the market found considerable support, and it was a prelude to the rally we are witnessing this week.”
As reported earlier in CoinTelegraph, the number of STH entities compared to their more experienced Long-Term Holder (LTH) counterparts is presently at a historic low. Despite their own profitability concerns, the LTHs now possess more than three-quarters of the available Bitcoin supply. Their average cost basis falls closer to $20,000. Yet, even though some believe that Bitcoin's value might descend back to that region, Glassnode predicts a favorable year-end result. According to them, "A sizable chunk of the supply and investors are now profiting above the average threshold of $28,000. This lays a solid groundwork for the continuation of the 2023 uptrend. At the very least, we have crossed several critical points where the collective investor sentiment is likely to be rooted, warranting careful monitoring over the coming weeks."
Per data from on-chain tracking resource CoinGlass, as of now, BTC/USD has a monthly appreciation of 26%. By October standards, this is comparatively modest.
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Published At
10/27/2023 8:38:25 AM
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