Bitcoin's Recent Bounce Sparks Debate on Buying Opportunity, Analyst Questions Feasibility of $100K Prediction and Spot ETF
Summary:
Cointelegraph analyst discusses Bitcoin's recent bounce at $25,000 and questions its potential as a buying opportunity. The low volume of BTC transactions and investor fatigue are highlighted. The analyst also analyzes the prediction of BTC hitting $100,000 in 2024 based on halving and potential ETF approval, raising doubts about its feasibility. The article emphasizes the challenges of a spot Bitcoin ETF and the SEC's concerns.
Bitcoin's recent bounce at $25,000 has sparked discussions among analysts and influencers who see it as a short-term buying opportunity. However, Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman believes that using the U.S. Dollar Index as a metric to predict Bitcoin's price movements may not be reliable, as the correlation has only held for 40% of the past 20 months. Pechman also points out that the amount of BTC changing hands is at its lowest since October 2020, which he attributes to investor apathy and exhaustion after regulatory actions against Coinbase and Binance. Despite these factors, Pechman disagrees with the notion that the current price level presents a good opportunity for buyers, citing a 50:50 risk-reward ratio in the short term.
Moving on to predictions, Pechman analyzes Davis Hui's forecast that BTC will reach $100,000 in 2024 based on the halving and a potential spot ETF approval. However, Pechman questions the significance of BlackRock's $10 trillion assets, noting that a significant portion is tied up in fixed-income investments and other ETFs. He also highlights the risk of current holders selling their positions if the price of Bitcoin were to surge, making the offer side unpredictable. Additionally, Pechman explains that a spot Bitcoin ETF has been an elusive dream for the past eight years, with no meaningful changes to address the SEC's concerns regarding stablecoin trading volumes and unregulated offshore exchanges.
Published At
9/13/2023 4:00:00 PM
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