Bitcoin's Price Could Surge 74.1% with US Spot ETFs Launch, says Galaxy Digital
Summary:
Crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital predicts a 74.1% surge in Bitcoin’s price in the first year following the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. The projection estimates the total potential market for Bitcoin ETFs at $14.4 trillion in the first year and up to $39.6 trillion three years post-launch. The firm expects other global markets to follow the U.S. in approving Bitcoin ETF offerings, potentially making 2024 a significant year for Bitcoin.
Galaxy Digital, a cryptocurrency investment firm, predicts a 74.1% surge in the price of Bitcoin(BTC) in the first year following the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. On October 24, Charles Yu, a Galaxy Digital research associate, projected the total potential market for Bitcoin ETFs to be $14.4 trillion in the first year post-launch. He derived the 74% boost by gauging the possible price effects of fund inflows into Bitcoin ETF products, using gold ETFs as a reference.
Yu's projections suggest a 6.2% increase in Bitcoin's price in the first month post-ETF launch, which would then gradually decline to a monthly growth of 3.7% by the 12th month. Referring to September 30 Bitcoin price data, a 74.1% rise from its present price would take Bitcoin to around $59,200.
In a similar vein, Markus Thielen, the chief of research at Matrixport, a digital asset financial services company, estimated on October 19 that Bitcoin's value could scale between $42,000 and $56,000 if the BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF application secures approval. Three years post-launch, Yu anticipates the potential market size for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs to scale up to $39.6 trillion.
Although Yu concedes that a deferral or declining of spot Bitcoin ETFs could affect its price forecast, he still considers the estimates as conservative. The calculations do not account for any "second-order effects" emerging from the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Yu believes other international markets will soon after follow the U.S.'s lead in sanctioning and providing similar Bitcoin ETF offerings to a broader pool of investors. He also envisaged that 2024 could be a pivotal year for Bitcoin, given the potential influx of ETF, the approaching Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, and the potential peaking of rates in the near future.
Published At
10/25/2023 1:46:17 AM
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