Anticipated Post-Halving BTC Sell-off Could Unbalance Crypto Markets
Summary:
Market analyst, Markus Thielen, predicts a significant sell-off of Bitcoin (BTC) by miners, following the halving process, which suggests a potential liquidation of roughly $5 billion worth of BTC. This event may result in a price stagnation period for Bitcoin as per past halvings. Thielen also anticipates altcoins to be heavily impacted by the post-halving sell-off, and coins like Marathon may be gradually sold after the halving to prevent a revenue decline. The surge of BTC being sold daily post-halving could unsettle the pre-halving supply/demand imbalance.
There's a potential expectation of a significant Bitcoin (BTC) sell-off from miners in the months succeeding the halving, similar patterns were seen in previous halving cycles, as per insight provided by a market analyst. A potential liquidation of approximately $5 billion worth of BTC might follow the halving, this information comes from Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, in a recent analyst report. Thielen suggested the fallout from this could take four to six months to occur, which could clarify why Bitcoin's performance might stagnate over the upcoming period, much like it has post previous halvings.
Thielen's forecast for the future involves a similar occurrence, with the crypto market likely facing a considerable hurdle in the shape of a six-month-long 'summer slump'. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin values stayed fixed between the $9,000 and $11,500 range for five months. This year's halving is expected around April 20, merely six days from today, thus significant market growth might not be seen before around October, assuming past patterns echo themselves.
Besides, miners usually hoard BTC, causing a supply and demand imbalance and a following rally in Bitcoin's price leading up to the halving. This pattern has already materialized, with BTC values skyrocketing by 74% in 2024 and even peaking at $73,734 on March 14, before dipping back below the $63,000 mark in mid-April.
Specific altcoins might feel the impact of this event according to Thielen. Several of them experienced considerable drops last week and are still a considerable distance from their 2021 highs. Thielen suggested Marathon, the globe's largest Bitcoin miner, had accumulated an inventory likely to be sold gradually after the halving to preempt a sharp decline in revenue. Basing off its current daily production of 28-30 BTC, this could result in an extra 133 days worth of supply being released on the market, along with the BTC generated post-halving, estimated at 14-15 BTC per day.
Thielen's conclusion suggests that, should all miners follow a similar approach and sell inventory post-halving, the market could see daily BTC sales of up to $104 million. This could potentially reverse the supply/demand imbalance that drove the pre-halving BTC rally. Last week, Marathon CEO, Peter Thiel, predicted the company's break-even point post-halving would be roughly $46,000 per BTC to sustain profitability. Thiel went on to speculate that significant price movement in the six months following the event is unlikely.
Published At
4/15/2024 6:39:22 AM
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